Summary as of Aug. 15 at 9:03 a.m.:
· At 8am the National Hurricane Center dropped Invest 92L chances from a 70 percent chance for development to a 50 percent chance for development in the next 48 hours. This drop in development chances is due to the systems interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.
· 92L will continue moving toward the West-Northwest at 12 mph with sustained maximum winds of 30 mph throughout the day.
· Once 92L moves off the Yucatan Peninsula further development is forecast as the national hurricane Center has the system at a 60 percent chance of development in days 3 to 5.
· Models are still flipping back and forth with the potential landfall location of this system. Model spreads have varied all along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Mexico. As long as the system remains weak it will be very hard for models to predict the track of 92L
· Tropical Depression 5 was upgraded to tropical storm Erin at 8am this morning.
· Erin has sustained winds of 40 mph as she tracks toward the West-Northwest at 16mph.
· Erin is surrounded by a good bubble of moisture and is forecast to strengthen steadily over the next few days
· While the track and intensity of 92L is still very uncertain at this time one thing we do know for sure is that a rainy and wet pattern has set up over North Florida
· Over the next five days the panhandle is forecast to see 4 to 5 inches of rain. If a tropical storm were to materialize out of 92L and track toward the gulf coast severe flooding would be a strong possibility. Rainfall totals would double or even triple in the next five days.
· All interests in Florida should be monitoring 92L because of its potential flooding impacts to the state.
Another update will be sent this afternoon.