'Lots of rain' in the forecast

Published: Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 12:06 PM.

This coincides with the Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service, which is showing that Florida’s rainy season has been extremely effective at diminishing the statewide rainfall deficit from the start of the water year (October). Despite the excessive rainfall, a few portions of the State are seeing rainfall deficits of up to eight inches.

This is why the long-term Palmer Drought Index values indicate that Florida is either near normal or slightly moist. As the rainy season continues, rainfall forecasts over the next 3 months indicate that drought conditions are not expected to develop at this time.

Tropical Weather:

The National Hurricane Center has circled a broad tropical wave in the Central Caribbean with a 20 percent (low) chance for tropical development in the next 48 hours. The wave has a 30 percent (medium) chance for development in 3 to 5 days as the system moves into a more favorable environment. Model forecasts range greatly with this system.

The European model does not develop this system into much more than a weak wave, while the American and Canadian forecast models tend to strengthen it into a tropical system. Models seem to be trending towards a north-northeast track that would take this system into the gulf coast on Friday and Saturday.

The uncertainty in development and track are great since the system still remains weak and models have trouble forecasting weak tropical waves. Regardless of development or track Florida will still see plenty of rain over the upcoming days and the moisture associated with this system would only increase rainfall totals if it tracks closer to the Florida coast. Thus all interest in Florida should monitor the tropics this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, another tropical wave is circled with a 10 percent (low) chance for development in the next 48 hours and a 20 percent (low) chance for development in days 3 to 5. This wave is tracking due west at 10 mph in an environment conducive for some development.

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