Flooding potential increasing this weekend

Flooding potential increasing
National Weather Service
Published: Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 05:18 PM.

The ingredients for another flood event appear to be coming together as predicted for our region. The combination of increasing tropical moisture from the south, a stalled frontal boundary, and an approaching upper level disturbance will create an environment favorable for very heavy rainfall starting late Friday and continuing through Saturday.


1. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated heavier totals. Isolated maximum totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible.

2. Flooding will occur first in low-lying and urban areas through Saturday with the heavy rain. River flooding will follow starting late Saturday night and continuing into next week.

The tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula will continue to move to the northwest and into the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. While the potential for development of this system has decreased, a significant amount of tropical moisture is streaming northward across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Whether this system organizes into a tropical depression or storm, the considerable influx of tropical moisture will combine with a stalled frontal boundary across the Southeast and approaching upper level energy to produce a period of heavy rainfall from Friday afternoon through Saturday across much of the region.

There remains some uncertainty with the location of the heaviest rainfall with this event, though several of the latest computer models appear to be indicating the greatest potential for flooding rainfall across Southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. One of these simulations appear at left. It is important to note that future simulations could shift the area of heavier rainfall elsewhere in the region, or even indicate lower rainfall totals.

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