Cold weather update from NWS

The following is from Irv Watson of the National Weather Service in Tallahassee on Tuesday afternoon courtesy of Holmes County EMA

Dothan was the lowest this morning with 21 degrees at our airport sites. Georgetown up in Quitman County in Georgia was the lowest from our cooperative stations at 19 degrees. The Eglin AFB sites came in between 20 and 21 degrees. Near the coast, the lows were 26 at Panama City, 27 at Apalachicola, and 27 at Steinhatchee. A cold night indeed was had along the coast!

Looking ahead, warmer temperatures are possible next week, but not all the guidance are in agreement as yet. So, hang on for another couple of days.

Current guidance suggests the following daily temperature extremes:

•Wednesday, Jan 6 – Min Temps: Around 20; Max Temps: 45-48

•Thursday, Jan 7 – Min Temps: 22-25; Max Temps: 48 northwest-58 southeast Big Bend

•Friday, Jan 8 - Min Temps: 24 northwest-38 southeast Big Bend; Max Temps: 37-47

•Saturday, Jan 9 - Min Temps: Upper teens to around 20; Max Temps: Upper 30s to mid 40s southeast Big Bend

•Sunday, Jan 10 - Min Temps: Around 20; Max Temps: 45-50

•Monday, Jan 11 - Min Temps: Teens southeast Big Bend-low to mid 20s northwest; Max Temps: Mid to Upper 50s

We have taken snow showers out of the forecast for Thursday night for now. We still expect a reinforcing cold surge Thursday night with an outside chance of a flurry or two. Water accumulations on Thursday and Thursday night should not exceed a couple of tenths of an inch. So, there is a slight chance (20%) for rain on Thursday and chance (30-40%) of rain on Thursday night as the cold front passes through the area.

The next twist of fate is Friday night as an upper air disturbance crosses the area from northwest to southeast bringing in a band of possible wintry mix across north central Florida up into the Cross City area. I haven't made a typo here; I said Florida. Several model solutions are showing this. Our main model, the GFS is not, but the Euro and Canadian models are. The water equivalent solutions are not trivial...above 1/4 inch! Will keep you posted on this scenario.

Morning low temperature records for Tallahassee for the next several days are:

•Wednesday, Jan 6 – 15 (1924)

•Thursday, Jan 7 – 17 (1924)

•Friday, Jan 8 - 14 (1970)

•Saturday, Jan 9 - 15 (1970)

•Sunday, Jan 10 - 12 ((1970)

•Monday, Jan 11 - 15 (1982)

We still have to go a ways to go to break any records. Saturday and Sunday mornings could be the coldest of all, but I believe all these records are safe for now.

Irv Watson

Science & Operations Officer