At 11 a.m. on Wednesday, Tropical Depression 4 strengthened to become Tropical Storm Dorian.


Summary as of Monday, July 29 at 7:20 a.m.:



         The remnants of Dorian are currently North of Puerto Rico moving West-northwest at 15 to 20 mph, with current maximum winds speeds are at 30 mph



         The remnants are still rather disorganized and the National Hurricane Center has the invest at a 40 percent (Medium) chance for development over the next 48 hours.



         The Invest if forecast to move in a similar direction over the next 48-72 hours before making a turn toward the north in association with an advancing frontal system.



         Models are in good agreement on keeping the system very weak with little strengthening over the next few days.



         Air Craft Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the Invest later today and tomorrow.



Florida Outlook:



         Regardless of regeneration Dorians remnants are expected to bring rainfall and gusty winds to South Florida on Thursday and Friday.



         High rip current risks along the Atlantic Coast will more than likely occur throughout the latter part of the week.



         All interests in Florida should monitor the system.



Summary as of Thursday, July 25 at 5 p.m.:



          At 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Dorian was located at 16.5N and 37.8W which is approximately 1670 miles east of the Leeward Islands.



         Maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next 5 days as Dorian moves over warmer waters. Drier air, however, will somewhat limit strengthening.



         Dorian is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph and this motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of days. Computer models are in general agreement and take Dorian west-northwest toward north of the Leeward Islands.



        There is, however, a 30 percent chance that Dorian could become a hurricane over the next 5 days.



         The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Dorian moving toward the west-northwest to north of Haiti while maintaining tropical storm status for the next 5 days.



         Elsewhere, an area of low pressure designated as Invest 99L was located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. Conditions are becoming less favorable for development as this system moves toward the north at 15 to 20 mph.



         The National Hurricane Center is indicating that this system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The next name on the Atlantic hurricane list is Erin.



Florida Outlook



         Tropical Storm Dorian is in the Central Atlantic, and no part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the tropics over the next few days.



         Invest 99L is not expected to bring any impacts to Florida at this time.



Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be sent tomorrow morning.



For more information, please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov



Summary as of Thursday, July 25 at 7:18 a.m.:



         Tropical Storm Dorian is currently 610 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands, moving West-northwest at 17 mph



         The storm has sustained winds of 60 mph and little to no weakening is forecast over the next five days.



         Model tracks are very tight over the next three to four days, putting high confidence in the storms placement over the next couple of days



         However the intensity and timing of Dorian is still highly variable. A stronger storm would result in a slower moving system, while a weaker system will be pushed by the strong easterly flow at a much faster pace.



         Dorian strengthened overnight despite moving over cooler waters. This indicates that the structure of Dorian is healthy, thus slight strengthening over the next several days is forecast. Note that Dorian has a 58 percent chance of being a tropical storm in five days.



Summary:



         At 11 a.m. on Wednesday, Tropical Depression 4 strengthened to become Tropical Storm Dorian. At 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Dorian was located at 14.6N and 31.4W which is approximately 505 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands



         Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible on Thursday as Dorian moves over cooler waters and drier air. Beyond that time, additional strengthening will be possible.



         Dorian is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph and this motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of days. Computer models are in general agreement and take Dorian west-northwest toward the Leeward Islands.



         The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Dorian moving toward the west-northwest near the Leeward Islands while maintaining tropical storm status for the next 5 days.



         Elsewhere, an area of low pressure designated as Invest 99L was located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development as this system moves toward the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.



         The National Hurricane Center is indicating that this system has a low chance (20 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The next name on the Atlantic hurricane list is Erin.



Florida Outlook



         Tropical Storm Dorian is in the Eastern Atlantic, and no part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the tropics over the next few days.



         Invest 99L is not expected to bring any impacts to Florida at this time.